Atlas · Domain A.01

Planning & forecasting

Forecasting is not guessing, it is decision design under uncertainty. This domain covers demand forecasting, KPI governance, and the PIC, S&OP and MRP processes that turn numbers into commitments.

Core concepts

Twenty concepts shape the domain. Each one progressively becomes a standalone Atlas topic page.

Statistical forecasting Bias vs error › Granularity and horizon Seasonality › Trend › Intermittent demand › Consensus forecast › Forecast Value Added › S&OP › MPS › MRP › Load plan › Frozen horizon › Decoupling stock › Demand sensing › Probabilistic forecast › Time series › Exponential smoothing › S&OE › Scenario planning ›

Six KPI and their classic traps.

A weak KPI drives teams in the wrong direction with precision. Each KPI here includes purpose and interpretation risk.

KPIWhat it measuresTrap
Bias (error sign)Whether forecast misses keep happening on the same side.TrapConfusing bias with absolute error. They must be managed separately.
MAPEAverage percentage forecast error.TrapIt inflates on low-volume or intermittent items.
WMAPEVolume-weighted forecast error.TrapUsing only global aggregation hides offsetting errors.
Forecast Value AddedNet value of each human intervention in the forecasting process.TrapAssuming every manual override improves accuracy.
Service levelShare of demand served on time.TrapMultiple local definitions make the metric non-governable.
Plan adherenceGap between planned decisions and actual execution.TrapMonitoring forecast alone and ignoring execution discipline.

The landscape

Five practical lenses to know where to look, who to listen to, and how to structure capability building.

Institutions & communities

ASCM, IBF, IIF, and major university supply chain labs.

Tools & software

Planning ERP layers, specialist APS platforms (SAP IBP, Kinaxis, o9, Blue Yonder, Anaplan, ToolsGroup, Lokad), and open tools (R, Python).

Certifications & training

CPIM, CSCP, CPF, ACPF, and Forecasting: Principles and Practice.

Reference publications

International Journal of Forecasting, Foresight, and enterprise forecasting classics.

Conferences & events

ISF, IBF annual conferences, and global technology events focused on planning and AI operations.

41 curated English-language videos

A deduplicated, source-checked selection. Every video carries a critical take to guide its use, not a neutral summary.